Evaluating probability forecasts
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
EVALUATING PROBABILITY FORECASTS: Calibration Isn’t Everything
Abstract: Using evaluation methodologies for rare events from meteorology and psychology, we examine the value of probability forecasts of real GDP declines during the current and each of the next four quarters using data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We study the quality of these probability forecasts in terms of calibration, resolution, the relative operating characteristic (RO...
متن کاملEvaluating probability forecasts for GDP declines using alternative methodologies
Evaluation methodologies for rare events from meteorology, psychology and medical diagnosis are used to examine the value of probability forecasts of real GDP declines during the current (Q0) and each of the next four quarters (Q1-Q4) using data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We study the quality of these probability forecasts in terms of calibration, resolution, odds ratio, the r...
متن کاملCombining Probability Forecasts
Linear pooling is by the far the most popular method for combining probability forecasts. However, any nontrivial weighted average of two or more distinct, calibrated probability forecasts is necessarily uncalibrated and lacks sharpness. In view of this, linear pooling requires recalibration, even in the ideal case in which the individual forecasts are calibrated. Toward this end, we propose a ...
متن کاملEvaluating multivariate volatility forecasts
The performance of techniques for evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts are not yet as well understood as their univariate counterparts. This paper aims to evaluate the efficacy of a range of traditional statistical-based methods for multivariate forecast evaluation together with methods based on underlying considerations of economic theory. It is found that statistical-based methods, or...
متن کاملEvaluating Long–Horizon Forecasts
This paper examines the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing applied to predictions from nested long-horizon regression models. We first derive the asymptotic distributions of a set of tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing, showing that the tests have non-standard distributions that depend on the parameters of the data-generati...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: The Annals of Statistics
سال: 2011
ISSN: 0090-5364
DOI: 10.1214/11-aos902